David J. Gerberry, Hem Raj Joshi
Abstract:
In this work, we develop a mathematical model of HIV epidemiology to explore
a possible mechanism by which mass incarceration can lead to increased
HIV incidence. The results are particularly relevant for the African American
community in the United States that represents only 12& of the total
population but accounts for 45& of HIV diagnoses and 40& of the
incarcerated population. While most explanations of the link between
mass incarceration (or anything else that leads to a population with
a low ratio of males to females) and higher HIV burden are based on the
complicated idea of sexual concurrency,
we propose a much simpler mechanism based on the idea of sexual activity
compensation.
The primary assumption behind this mechanism is that females determine
the overall level of sexual activity in a population.
Consequently, sexual activity will remain relatively stable even when
male-to-female ratios are low.
For this to be possible, the pool of men will increase their sexual activity
to meet the demands of the female population.
Through mathematical analysis and numerical simulation, we demonstrate that
these assumptions produce a situation in which mass incarceration
(and low male-to-female ratios, in general) lead to higher HIV incidence.
Published November 15, 2017.
Math Subject Classifications: 35K28, 34R60, 92B99.
Key Words: HIV epidemiology; mass incarceration and HIV incidence;
male-female ratio; R0.
Show me the PDF file (504 K), TEX file for this article.
David J. Gerberry Department of Mathematics Xavier University Cincinnati, Ohio 45207, USA email: david.gerberry@xavier.edu | |
Hem Raj Joshi Department of Mathematics Xavier University Cincinnati, Ohio 45207, USA email: joshi@xavier.edu |
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