Jon T. Schnute
Abstract:
Mathematics plays a major role in contemporary
fisheries management. Stock assessments often depend on elaborate
models used to set catch levels and address other policy objectives. In
recent years, the collapse of various important fish stocks has caused
some critics to suggest that mathematical models actually obscure the
truth by narrowing scientific understanding to the realm of
quantifiable events. In the words of one fisherman,
``Mathematics has highjacked the definition and position of real
science.'' In this paper, I present a number of typical fishery
models, examine their limitations, discuss controversies about their
use, and explore possible alternatives. I draw on examples from
economics and investment theory to illustrate the problem of making
credible predictions about an uncertain future. The constraints of the
real world, where people care deeply about policy consequences, have
altered my scientific perspective as an applied mathematician. This
paper reflects the evolution of thought that has accompanied my
experience working for 28 years at the Pacific Biological Station in
Nanaimo, B.C., the host city for this conference.
Published April 20, 2005.
Math Subject Classifications: 62P10, 92B05, 92B15.
Key Words: Fishery models; state space models; statistical decisions.
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| Jon T. Schnute Fisheries and Oceans Canada Pacific Biological Station 3190 Hammond Bay Road Nanaimo, B.C. V9T 6N7, Canada email: schnutej@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca |
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